I'm definitely being a square tonight, but that's okay as I think the Yankees have a greater advantage than the oddsmakers are leading on.. First of all Kuroda really has only had 1 bad start and I think the line should be 20-30 points higher so I'll grab the value as I explained in previous inter league match ups the home team always has a great advantage and they do again tonight. Kuroda was dominant last year on 5 days rest and he will be on 5 days rest again tonight where he posted an ERA at home under 2. Kuroda faces the Mets who are 29th in OPS vs. RHP and really struggling of late.
Bartolo Colon will start, but he's posted a 7.23 ERA on the road he's an extreme fly ball pitcher and it's warm in New York tonight. He has not pitched well at this stadium and he has not pitched well against these hitters. I expect the Yankees to get a few runs off Colon which should be plenty. Jeter and Beltran both carry an OPS over 1.000 against Colon while others have very respectable numbers to combine for a team 368 AB .299 average and 1.030 OPS. The Yankees typically struggle against pitchers they have not seen before, but Colon has been around the block and throws more fast ball by % than any other starter so he's not hard to figure. Yankees are 47-23 in their last 70 home inter league match ups vs. RH starter and I look for win #48.\
The Heat were expected in my opinion to lose one game in this round on the road, but I don't think they will let the Nets gain any momentum in game 4. The Heat know this is a dangerous match up with the Nets sweeping the regular season series and should be able to pick up a win. I think the Nets will have their hands full and they certainly can not expect to shoot 15-25 from three point land again... Either way Lebron and this team have been very good in this round ATS and they have been even better following a SU loss so expect a big effort tonight by the Heat.
